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Mounting concerns are present regarding the potential of warfare between Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in last year that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has broadcast completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a statement that the conflict was finished – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

But ties have since broken down again.